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Lonigo, 9 January 2020
Winds of war? Maybe or maybe not.
Let’s start this political analisys saying that a warrior has been killed. Cowardly killed by american “democratic” weapons.
Commander general Suleimani, leader of Islamic Revolutionary Guards, was a soldier that fought many wars always in the front line personally.
Almost a mystical figure in Islamic Republic of Iran, he was for years field commander of iranian military operations like that in support of Assad’s faction in the syrian conflict or against the Islamic State on the border between Syria and Iraq, operation that ,substantially, defeated the ISIS force in the zone.
When a great leader falls,he deserves honors and tributes, and that is what we do.
The results of this action , of the “counter attack” and of the subsequent Trump’s speech , seems to restore calm in the whole region regardless of the threatening words of both players.
But we ask, is correct to analyze the current middle eastern conflict using “cold war’s” logic of a duel only between United States ad Iran?
Many players, in a multipolar logic (or better : in a global unipolar logic but in a regional multipolar logic), play many roles as a puppet or as puppeteer.
First of all United States : they pursues their usuals criminal acts of aggression.
In the last decades, regardless of the political side of the goverment, many acts of war have been directed versus the american-only designated “rogue states”.
Aggressions that have many purposes either in foreign or domestic policy.
In this particular case, Trump’s administration, with a close election date, is still searching their “great miltary victory” like Bin Laden’s killing for Obama or Saddam’s imprisonment for the previous one.
At this point a “victory” like that will be of use for avoiding the presidential impeachment procedure getting worse.
Procedure that, despite of low success probability, may compromise trump’s re-election.
For that some of the “cross-side” political exponents,like Joe Liberman former US Senator, former Democratic exponent and then recycled as McCain sponsor in the presidential race, are calling for political unity around the president supporting any action against Iran.
Next reason for raising the miltary tension in the middle east starts with Yemen’s led attacks versus saudi oil fields in September.
That event increased the strategic value of Iraqi oil wells and justified the raising of american miltary presence in the area (the estimated increase of field forces is immediately valued as 3500 men).
Meanwhile in the neighborhood, syrian war led to a creation of a territory where, on the side of syrian legitimate government, many players are on the field : the raising power of Turkey, the miltary power of Russia, the remaining of Islamic State all engaged in a all versus all type of conflict.
Many local conflicts (Kurdistan, North Syria) seems to be endless and a strong american presence in the zone will be a balance needle and in case of escalations may be on the side of they favorable “allied on duty”.
Considering also that Israel, main american allied in middle east, certainly won’t be at the window waiting for the events.
However ,considering everything, our position about current situation is of absolute opposition at the american aggression and on the side of illegitimately attacked countries.
But… on the other side we will find Islamic Republic of Iran. A country that , for some foreign policies and for his history gained some of our respect, but in current world political scenario sometimes played “double face”, switching sides and cooperate with theirs worst enemies damaging some noble causes like the contruction of Palestinian National State.
For those reasons we think that the events of the last week, starting with america attack an ending with Trump’s speech are the pieces of a big, covert and bloody propaganda operation.
Last but not the least, we will focus on the great absence of the whole scenario : Europe.
Where is Europe now? An entity without the ability to express a unitary political view on the events, an entity with no military power, is busy with his ridicolus diplomacy trying to resolve the libyan conflict (culpably left in the background).
The sanctions that Trump has threatened for Iran, have as primary consequence the fact that Europe (and Russia too) will be excluded from any negotiation with Iran, and will therefore be excluded from world politics.